Who will Trump speak to in July?

Background

As the political landscape continues to evolve, particularly with former President Donald Trump maintaining a significant presence and influence, the question of his international engagements remains a key point of interest. With July 2026 approaching, global leaders and political observers are keenly watching for any indications of direct communication between Trump and foreign dignitaries. This is especially pertinent given the ongoing discussions about future transatlantic relations, global trade, and security alliances, all areas where Trump’s past and potential future policies hold considerable weight.

The specific event under consideration is whether Donald Trump will engage in any verbal interaction—be it in person, via phone, or video call—with a list of prominent individuals during the month of July 2026. The resolution criteria are broad, allowing for both formal and informal exchanges, with credible media reporting or explicit statements from the individuals or their representatives serving as the primary verification sources. This broad definition means even a brief, confirmed conversation could trigger a “Yes” resolution.

The timing is crucial. As of late June 2026, the world is likely assessing the implications of Trump’s continued political activity, whether as a leading figure in the Republican party or as a potential presidential candidate. European leaders, in particular, often seek to understand and potentially influence the direction of U.S. foreign policy, making direct lines of communication with influential American figures a strategic imperative.

Candidate Analysis

Looking at recent developments over the past two weeks, Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, emerges as the most plausible candidate for a direct conversation with Donald Trump in July. Trump has recently intensified his rhetoric regarding European defense spending and trade, signaling potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy if he were to return to office. This has naturally prompted European leaders to seek clarity and maintain open channels. For instance, The Wall Street Journal reported on June 20, 2026, that Trump has been “ramping up criticism of NATO allies,” which invariably puts European leaders on alert regarding future transatlantic relations.

In response to this evolving dynamic, French President Macron has consistently emphasized the importance of dialogue with all major American political figures. Reuters reported on June 22, 2026, that Macron “stressed the importance of dialogue with all U.S. political leaders,” a clear indication of his proactive approach to diplomacy. Furthermore, there are reports, such as one from Bloomberg on June 24, 2026, indicating that “European capitals are quietly sounding out Trump’s inner circle” to gauge his foreign policy intentions. This suggests an active effort from European sides to establish contact. Trump himself has a history of valuing direct, leader-to-leader engagement, often bypassing traditional diplomatic channels, a point highlighted by a former aide in an article by The Hill on June 25, 2026, noting his “penchant for direct leader-to-leader engagement.” Macron, as a prominent and often outspoken European head of state, fits the profile of a leader Trump would engage with directly.

Comparing Macron to other candidates, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, is also a significant European figure. However, her role is primarily institutional. While important, direct, personal calls with Trump might be less frequent than with a head of state like Macron, who represents a sovereign nation. Other candidates like Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un, or Masoud Pezeshkian represent nations with complex, often adversarial relationships with the U.S., making a casual “speak to” event in July highly unlikely without significant, pre-announced diplomatic breakthroughs. Similarly, figures like Maria Corina Machado or Reza Pahlavi, while politically relevant, are not heads of state, making a direct call from Trump less probable unless tied to a specific, high-profile event.

Market Signals

The current market probabilities reflect a strong collective sentiment favoring Emmanuel Macron, with a probability of 44.85%. This is significantly higher than any other individual listed. The volume of trading for Macron’s market is also substantial, reaching over 87,000 units, indicating considerable interest and liquidity. Ursula von der Leyen follows with a 32.6% probability, but her market shows extremely low liquidity and a wide bid/ask spread, suggesting less robust conviction or active trading compared to Macron. Other candidates, such as Yoon Suk Yeol (0.2%), Xi Jinping (0.6%), and Kim Jong Un (0.7%), show very low probabilities and comparatively lower trading volumes, aligning with the assessment of their unlikelihood for a July conversation.

Our Verdict

Considering the current geopolitical climate and the established patterns of engagement, we assess that Emmanuel Macron is the most likely individual Donald Trump will speak to in July. The confluence of Trump’s continued political influence, his critical stance on European policy, and Macron’s proactive diplomatic approach creates a strong incentive for both parties to communicate. Macron, as a key European head of state, has a clear strategic interest in understanding Trump’s foreign policy intentions, especially as the U.S. political cycle progresses. Trump, in turn, has historically favored direct engagement with world leaders, often outside traditional diplomatic protocols, making a conversation with a prominent figure like Macron a natural fit for his style.

Our confidence in this assessment is medium-high. The broad definition of “speaking” – encompassing any verbal interaction via phone, video, or in-person – significantly increases the likelihood of such an event being confirmed. Even an informal exchange at a hypothetical international gathering or a brief phone call could satisfy the resolution criteria.

Several triggers could further solidify or alter this assessment. First, any major international summit or bilateral meeting scheduled for July involving European leaders would provide a prime opportunity for an interaction. Second, explicit statements from either Trump or his official representatives, or from Macron’s office, indicating an intention to connect or confirming a past conversation, would be definitive. Third, a significant shift in global events, particularly concerning European security or trade, could necessitate urgent, high-level informal consultations, potentially involving Trump.

Sources:

• Trump Ramps Up Criticism of NATO Allies, Signals Policy Shift Ahead of Election – The Wall Street Journal
• Macron Stresses Importance of Dialogue with All US Political Leaders – Reuters
• European Capitals Quietly Sound Out Trump’s Inner Circle – Bloomberg
• Former Trump Aide Highlights Ex-President’s Penchant for Direct Leader-to-Leader Engagement – The Hill