Baden-Württemberg has long been a unique piece of the German political puzzle. Since 2011, it has been the only state led by a Green Minister-President, Winfried Kretschmann. But as the March 2026 elections approach, the “Kretschmann era” is drawing to a close, and the battle for the hierarchy in the Landtag is intensifying. While the top spot is a fierce contest, the position for second place is increasingly looking like a locked-in outcome for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
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The “Özdemir Factor” and the Green Incumbency
Here’s the thing: the Green Party isn’t going down without a fight. In late 2024, Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir officially announced his candidacy to succeed Kretschmann. This move is a strategic attempt to transfer the “Landesvater” (father of the state) bonus from the retiring Kretschmann to another high-profile, moderate figure. If Özdemir successfully appeals to the state’s conservative-leaning but environmentally conscious middle class, the Greens could realistically hold onto first place.
Recent polling trends from the BW-Trend indicate that while the CDU has overtaken the Greens in raw percentage points, the Greens maintain a structural advantage in urban centers like Stuttgart and Freiburg. If the Greens manage to pull off a first-place finish, the CDU—currently polling significantly higher than any other challenger—is the only logical occupant for the second-place spot.
The CDU’s Unshakeable Floor
Why is the CDU the most likely candidate for second place? Look closer at the numbers. Under the leadership of Manuel Hagel, the Baden-Württemberg CDU has rejuvenated its image, positioning itself as a “government-in-waiting.” Even if they fail to capture the premiership, their polling floor is remarkably high. Most recent data suggests the CDU is hovering between 30% and 34% of the vote.
And that’s important because the gap between the CDU and the third-place contender is massive. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Social Democrats (SPD) are currently trailing by 15 to 20 percentage points. For the CDU to fall to third place, it would require a political shift of unprecedented proportions in the state’s post-war history. Therefore, whether the CDU wins the election or comes in just behind a resilient Green party, their grip on at least the second-most seats is statistically dominant.
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The Competition: Why Others Fall Short
The AfD and SPD simply lack the broad-based appeal required to challenge for the top two spots in this specific state. The AfD’s support in Baden-Württemberg has plateaued around 14-16%, largely confined to specific rural districts and protest voters. Meanwhile, the SPD has struggled to regain its former glory in the southwest, often languishing in the low teens. For either party to leapfrog the CDU into second place, they would need to nearly double their current seat projections—a scenario that current political triggers, such as the recent federal election results, do not support.
Triggers to Watch
What changes the picture? Keep an eye on these three signals:
- Coalition Dynamics: Any formal pre-election agreement between the CDU and Greens could signal who is content being the junior partner.
- Economic Indicators: As an industrial powerhouse (home to Mercedes and Bosch), any significant downturn in the automotive sector could hurt the incumbent Greens more than the opposition CDU.
- Özdemir’s Approval Ratings: If Cem Özdemir fails to connect with rural voters in the coming months, the Greens could slide to second, pushing the CDU into first—which would actually flip the current expectation for this specific ranking.
Current market sentiment reflects this stability, with the CDU holding a dominant 98.9% probability for the second-place finish. Trading volume is concentrated heavily on this outcome, with over 300,000 units moved, showing a high level of conviction that the CDU will, at the very least, be the runner-up in the 2026 assembly.
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