Background The question of whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States by July 31, 2026, has drawn attention amid ongoing political tensions and legal challenges surrounding his presidency. The event in focus is whether Trump will resign, be removed, or otherwise permanently leave office before that date. This includes removal…
Background The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on September 15-16, 2026, to decide on the target federal funds rate, a key benchmark for U.S. monetary policy. This decision influences borrowing costs, inflation control, and overall economic growth. The upper bound of the target federal funds range is the specific focus, with…
Background The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on September 15-16, 2026, to decide on the target federal funds rate, a key benchmark for U.S. monetary policy. This rate influences borrowing costs across the economy, affecting everything from mortgages to business loans. The decision is closely watched by markets and policymakers alike,…
Background The recent diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran marks a notable shift in a relationship long defined by tension and mistrust. On June 22, 2026, the first round of senior-level talks concluded in Switzerland, with mediators announcing progress toward a roadmap for a final deal. This development has raised hopes for a…
Background The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption in traffic here can ripple through global energy markets and geopolitical relations. The question at hand is whether the daily transit calls through the Strait will return to a level considered “normal”…
VERDICT: Russia will likely capture Kostyantynivka CONFIDENCE: medium-high TITLE: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by…? Background The ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to reshape the geopolitical landscape, with particular intensity focused on the eastern Donbas region. Russia has maintained a persistent offensive posture, aiming to secure the entirety of Donetsk Oblast. This objective places significant…
Background On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran publicly declared a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at ending immediate hostilities and setting a 60-day timeline to negotiate a final agreement. This framework is critical as it represents a rare diplomatic opening between two long-standing adversaries, with significant implications for regional stability and global…
Background The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and goods transit. Recent years have seen disruptions due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the United States. These tensions have led to fluctuations in shipping traffic, raising concerns about the stability of global…
VERDICT: No CONFIDENCE: high TITLE: Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Background The question of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership has been a central flashpoint in European security for decades, escalating dramatically with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Russia has consistently cited Ukraine’s aspirations to join the alliance as a primary justification…
Background The question of who Donald Trump will name as the next United States Attorney General by June 30, 2026, has gained traction amid ongoing political maneuvering within conservative circles. The Attorney General role is pivotal, overseeing the Department of Justice and influencing federal law enforcement priorities. Given Trump’s continued influence in Republican politics and…