The proposed “Nordio Reform,” which aims to fundamentally reshape the Italian judiciary by separating the careers of judges and prosecutors, has entered a critical legislative phase. While the government is pushing for a swift process, the structural requirements of the Italian Constitution make the timeline for a national referendum by early 2026 extremely tight.
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Recent Developments and Procedural Hurdles
On January 15, 2025, the Chamber of Deputies (Camera dei Deputati) provided the first official green light for the constitutional reform bill, passing it with 230 votes in favor and 137 against. This marks the beginning of a long road. Because this is a constitutional amendment, Article 138 of the Italian Constitution mandates a rigorous “double passage” system. This means both the Chamber and the Senate must approve the text twice, with a mandatory cooling-off period of at least three months between the first and second votes in each house.
Here is the reality of the calendar: even if the Senate approves its first reading by the spring of 2025, the second round of votes cannot legally conclude until late 2025 or early 2026. If the reform fails to secure a two-thirds majority in the final votes—which is likely given the current political polarization—a referendum must be requested. Following that request, the President of the Republic has a specific window to set the date, typically between 50 and 70 days after the decree. Any minor political delay or procedural friction would push the actual vote past the June 30, 2026, deadline.
Institutional Resistance
The reform faces significant pushback from the legal community. The National Association of Magistrates (ANM) has consistently voiced opposition, arguing that separating careers could undermine the independence of the judiciary and eventually lead to executive control over prosecutors. This institutional friction often translates into parliamentary obstructionism, which can further slow down the legislative clock.
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What to Watch For
The “No” outcome currently appears more grounded in procedural reality than in the popularity of the reform itself. To change this outlook, we would need to see:
- An unprecedented acceleration in the Senate’s first reading before the end of Q1 2025.
- A total absence of amendments in the second readings, as any change to the text would reset the “shuttle” (navetta) process between the two houses.
- Official government statements confirming a firm commitment to a March 2026 ballot date.
The core issue isn’t just whether Italians support the reform, but whether the Italian bureaucracy can move fast enough to meet the mid-2026 cutoff. Historically, constitutional reforms in Italy take years, not months, to move from the first reading to a popular vote.
Current data shows a heavy lean toward a “No” resolution, with the probability of a “Yes” sitting at a marginal 0.45%. This is supported by a total volume of $872,271 and a spread of 0.001, indicating a strong consensus that the procedural window is simply too narrow for a successful “Yes” outcome by the specified deadline.
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