Bitcoin’s price action during the New York trading session has become a focal point for intraday traders, especially as institutional participation through spot ETFs reshapes how the 1-hour candles behave on major exchanges like Binance. The specific window starting at 1 PM ET on February 17 is particularly interesting because it captures the transition from the midday “lull” into the final stretch of the U.S. trading day.
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Recent data from the last two weeks shows a significant shift in how Bitcoin maintains its intraday floors. Here is the thing: the consistent net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a “buy-the-dip” mentality that often triggers during U.S. hours. For instance, in mid-February, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed and held the $52,000 level, supported by over $2 billion in cumulative weekly inflows into digital asset investment products. This institutional backstop tends to stabilize the price during the 1 PM ET hour, as European markets close and U.S. desks manage their final allocations for the day.
Another critical factor is the current liquidity profile on Binance’s BTC/USDT pair. Over the last 14 days, the order book depth has shown a concentration of buy orders just below the psychological mid-day benchmarks. When Bitcoin enters the 1 PM ET candle with positive momentum from the morning session, it has historically shown a high probability of closing “Up” or flat, as the aggressive selling typically seen at the 9:30 AM ET open has usually exhausted itself by early afternoon.
The Case for an “Up” Resolution
The most likely outcome for the 1 PM ET candle is a close that is greater than or equal to its open. This is driven by the “afternoon recovery” trend often observed in bullish cycles. Look closer at the recent Tuesday and Wednesday sessions: Bitcoin has frequently used the 12 PM to 2 PM ET window to consolidate before a late-day rally. With the current macro environment favoring risk-on assets and the absence of major sell-side triggers scheduled for this specific timeframe, the path of least resistance remains upward. The structural demand from automated ETF rebalancing, which often influences the latter half of the New York session, provides a steady tailwind that makes a green candle more probable than a sudden reversal.
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Why the Alternative Faces Headwinds
A “Down” resolution would require a sharp, localized spike in selling pressure or a sudden macroeconomic shock, such as an unexpected hawkish comment from a Federal Reserve official. However, most major volatility catalysts in the current market are front-loaded into the morning session (8:30 AM to 10:00 AM ET). By 1 PM ET, the market has typically “priced in” the day’s news, making a significant downward break during a single one-hour candle less likely unless there is a specific, unforeseen liquidity event on the Binance spot market.
Current sentiment reflects extreme confidence in this bullish continuation. The volume for this specific timeframe has surged to over 410,000 units, with the prevailing expectation for an “Up” close sitting at a dominant 99.95%. While the last traded price remains at 0.999, the high liquidity of nearly 950,000 suggests that this isn’t just a speculative spike but a reflection of a very strong, established price trend leading into the February 17 session.
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